Market Indicators
Key economic and technical signals — week of
VIX — Fear Index
CBOE Volatility Index
32.4
⚠ Elevated — above 30 signals market stress
Fed Funds Rate
US interest rate
4.50%
Hold — 0 cuts expected in 2026
BoE Base Rate
UK interest rate
4.50%
2 cuts expected — Q3/Q4 2026
US 10Y Treasury
Government bond yield
4.38%
Elevated — weighing on equity valuations
US CPI (YoY)
Consumer price inflation
2.8%
Above 2% target — blocking Fed cuts
UK CPI (YoY)
Consumer price inflation
2.6%
Easing — BoE cut window opening
US Unemployment
Non-farm payrolls basis
4.2%
Stable — labour market holding firm
Recession Probability
J.P. Morgan 12-month estimate
35%
Elevated — rising from 15% in January
Dollar Index (DXY)
USD vs basket of currencies
99.8
Weakening — below 100 for first time since 2022
UK Unemployment
ONS claimant count basis
4.4%
Stable — slight uptick from 4.2% in Q4 2025
AI Capex 2026
Projected big tech spend
+36%
~$602B forecast — structural tailwind for semis
Gold Price
Spot price per troy ounce
$3,238
All-time high — strong safe haven demand
⚠For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Data is indicative — live FRED & Yahoo Finance integration coming soon.